California Gubernatorial Race

Emerson College Polling: April 2026

The latest survey from Emerson College, conducted as of April 16, 2026, reveals a highly fragmented field and a significant block of undecided voters. With no single candidate commanding a dominant lead, the race for the June 2nd primary remains fluid.

Current Standings

The following table outlines voter support for the primary candidates based on the poll's topline results:

Key Analysis

The Undecided Factor: At 23%, the undecided electorate is larger than the support for any individual candidate. This suggests that "too many undecided" remains a primary takeaway for the current race.

Republican Consolidation: Republican candidates Steve Hilton (16.6%) and Chad Bianco (14.4%) currently hold the top two polling positions. President Trump’s recent endorsement of Hilton has dealt a potentially significant blow to Bianco’s efforts to consolidate the GOP vote.

The Democratic Split: The Democratic vote is heavily divided among Tom Steyer (14.1%), Xavier Becerra (10.4%), and Katie Porter (10.3%). Analysts note that this fragmentation risks a "nightmare scenario" for Democrats where two Republicans could potentially advance to the general election runoff.

Campaign Dynamics: Eric Swalwell's exit has intensified the battle among Democrats. Tom Steyer has gained momentum, securing the endorsement of the California Teachers Association (CTA) and multiple Assemblymembers. Meanwhile, Matt Mahan’s campaign is leveraging the shift, launching a major $14 million TV ad buy from a supporting Super PAC. Republican delegates refused to endorse Steve Hilton, despite President Trump’s support.

Voter Issue Landscape

Voters identified several critical issues driving their decisions for the upcoming primary:

Economy: Jobs, inflation, and taxes remain the paramount concern for 41.1% of Californians.
Housing Affordability: Nearly one-fifth of voters (19.8%) cite housing as the most important issue facing the state.
Governance Concerns: Threats to democracy were noted by 9.7% of respondents as a top priority.
Safety and Immigration: Crime (6.4%) and immigration (6.0%) follow as significant secondary concerns.

Upcoming Debates

Two primary debates are scheduled: Wednesday, April 22, at 7 p.m. PT, and Tuesday, April 28, at 5:30 p.m.. The April 22 debate will feature Republicans Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco, and Democrats Tom Steyer, Xavier Becerra, Katie Porter, and Matt Mahan.

Survey Methodology
Sample Size: 1,000 respondents.
Date Conducted: (Final results updated April 16, 2026).
Lead Researcher: (Emerson College Polling).