Your Ballot is Your Power
The latest CBS News poll, released April 27, 2026, and aggregated polling data reveals a highly fluid race with the undecided electorate representing the largest block of voters. The race for the June 2nd primary remains fluid.
California Gubernatorial Snapshot
April 2026 Polling Snapshot (CBS/RealClear/Ballot Book)
The latest CBS News poll, released April 27, 2026, and aggregated polling data reveals a highly fluid race with the undecided electorate representing the largest block of voters. The race for the June 2nd primary remains fluid.
Current Standings
The following table outlines voter support for the primary candidates based on the poll's topline results: (As of May 10, 2026)
- Undecided: 31%
- Steve Hilton (R): 16%
- Tom Steyer (D): 15%
- Xavier Becerra (D): 13%
- Chad Bianco (R): 13%
- Katie Porter (D): 12%
- Matt Mahan (D): 4%
- Antonio Villaraigosa (D): 4%
- Tony Thurmond (D): 1%
Note: Betty Yee dropped out of the race on April 20.
Key Analysis
The Undecided Factor: At 31%, the undecided electorate remains the largest block, suggesting a highly fluid race, with a significant share of primary voters still uncommitted.
The Democratic Split & Lockout Risk: The Democratic vote remains heavily divided. This fragmentation continues to pose a risk of a "nightmare scenario" where two Republicans could potentially advance to the June 2nd general election runoff. Democratic leaders have publicly urged "non-viable" candidates to withdraw to mitigate this risk.
Becerra’s Surge: Following Eric Swalwell's exit and Betty Yee's departure, Xavier Becerra has surged to 13% support in the latest polls, consolidating establishment and Latino support. A new state party poll even shows him tied with Tom Steyer at 13%. However, his abrupt rise has reportedly been met with "incredulity and mockery" by former Biden administration colleagues who found him ineffective as HHS Secretary.
Republican Dynamics: Steve Hilton (16%) and Chad Bianco (13%) hold significant positions. Despite President Trump's endorsement of Hilton on April 6, 2026, Republican delegates at the State Convention refused to back him, highlighting intra-party conflict. Bianco plans to attack Hilton, grouping him with Democrats as a "political insider". Furthermore, a new PAC, 'Greater Golden State Opposing Steve Hilton', backed by the Democratic Governors Association, has emerged.
Voter Issue Landscape
Voters identified the following critical issues driving their decisions for the upcoming primary:
Economy: Jobs, inflation, and taxes remain the paramount concern for 41.1% of Californians.
Housing Affordability: Nearly one-fifth of voters (19.8%) cite housing as the most important issue.
Governance Concerns: Threats to democracy were noted by 9.7% of respondents.
Safety and Immigration: Crime (6.4%) and immigration (6.0%) follow as significant secondary concerns.
The race has intensified following recent candidate departures, with major endorsements and financial resources consolidating around the front-runners.
Latest Developments
Campaign Finance: Tom Steyer is dominating the airwaves with a $120 million advertising blitz. Matt Mahan’s supporting Super PAC, "Back to Basics," launched a $14 million ad buy, bringing his total raised to $22 million, second only to Steyer. Katie Porter raised over $1 million from grassroots donors in five days following the Swalwell fallout, and a new Independent Expenditure committee is now launching a statewide buy touting her congressional record, including the whiteboard, and her support for single-payer health care and eliminating income tax for those making less than $100,000/year. A new PAC, 'Greater Golden State Opposing Steve Hilton', backed by the Democratic Governors Association, has also emerged.
Key Endorsements for Democratic Front-Runners
Katie Porter (D)
Political Leaders: U.S. Senator Elizabeth Warren and Assemblymember Cottie Petrie-Norris.
Labor Unions: Communications Workers of America (CWA) District 9, Teamsters California, United Auto Workers (UAW), National Union of Healthcare Workers (NUHW), Amalgamated Transit Union (ATU), and SMART.
Advocacy & Women's Groups: EMILYs List, Fund Her, and Vote Mama PAC.
Coalitions: The California Labor Federation (split endorsement) and Orange County Employees Association (OCEA).
Tom Steyer (D)
Political Leaders: Former state Controller Betty Yee and Assemblymembers Nick Schultz, Tasha Boerner, and Corey Jackson.
Statewide Organizations: California Teachers Association (CTA), Courage California, and Our Revolution (Bernie Sanders-aligned).
Coalitions: The California Labor Federation (split endorsement).
Xavier Becerra (D)
Political Allies: Newsom allies, including the digital firm LaMont Digital.
Demographic Support: Actively consolidating Latino and establishment support across the state.
Campaign Dynamics & Latest News (as of May 10, 2026)
Recent Debates and Endorsement Information
May 5 Debate: A primary debate aired on Tuesday, May 5, hosted by CNN.
April 28 Debate: A primary debate was held on Tuesday, April 28, hosted by Pomona College.
April 29 Endorsement Meeting: The Santa Barbara Women’s Political Committee (SBWPC) held its Endorsement and Advocacy (E&A) meeting on Wednesday, April 29, to deliberate on state race endorsements. The committee did not reach an endorsement.
Housing Focus: The four leading Democratic candidates for governor—Steyer, Becerra, Porter, and Mahan—are all making big promises to fix California’s intractable housing affordability problems.
Survey Methodology Sample Size: 1,000 respondents.
Date Conducted: The most recent poll (CBS News) was released April 27, 2026.
Earlier Polling Reference: The original Emerson College Polling data remains a reference for trends and was updated as of April 16, 2026.
Lead Researcher: Emerson College Polling.
Sources Used
Official Primary Guide: California Secretary of State (opens in a new tab).
SBWPC Organization Info: Santa Barbara Women's Political Committee.
Latest Gubernatorial Analysis: POLITICO California Playbook. (opens in a new tab)
Should I Hold on to my Ballot?
The question now is whether you should submit your ballot or hold on to it just a bit longer. The race is still developing, but if you’ve made up your mind, go ahead and mail it in. For those who want to observe how the situation changes within the next few weeks, hold on to your ballot and ensure you drop it off at the secure county ballot drop-off locations once a frontrunner emergences. You’re not alone in feeling uncertain. You’re part of the over 23 percent undecided whose vote will significantly impact the outcome of the race once your ballot is cast. Regardless of your decision, make sure you exercise your right to vote.
